Resources and Documents
Publications:
Monty G. Marshall. 1993. "States at Risk: Ethnopolitical Conflict in
the Multinational States of Eastern Europe." Chapter 7 in T. R.
Gurr, Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical
Conflicts. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace.
Monty G. Marshall. 1997. "Systems at Risk: Violence, Diffusion, and
Disintegration in the Middle East." Chapter 6 in D. Carment and
P. James, eds., Wars Amidst Peace: The International Politics of
Ethnic Conflict. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.
Monty G. Marshall. 1997. "Societal Disintegration and Arrested
Development: A Systemic View." Chapter 2 in G. Baechler, ed.,
Federalism Against Ethnicity? Institutional, Legal and Democratic
Instruments to Prevent Violent Minority Conflicts. Zurich: Verlag
Ruegger for the Swiss Academy of Historical and Social Sciences.
Monty G. Marshall. 1999. Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict
Dynamics. Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. http://www.systemicpeace.org/csptww.htm
Monty G. Marshall and Donna Ramsey Marshall. 1999. Gender Empowerment and
the Willingness of States to Use Force. CSP Occasional Paper 2. Severn,
MD: Center for Systemic Peace. http://www.systemicpeace.org/CSPpaper2.pdf
Donna Ramsey Marshall. 2000. Women in War and Peace: Grassroots Peacebuilding.
Peaceworks no. 34. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace. http://www.systemicpeace.org/PWKS34.pdf
Ted Robert Gurr and Monty G. Marshall. 2000. "Assessing Risks of Future Ethnic Wars." Chapter 7 and Appendix B in Ted Robert Gurr, Peoples
versus States: Minorities at Risk in the New Century. Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.
Donna Ramsey Marshall. 2001. New Bridges to Peace: Enhancing National and
International Security by Expanding Policy Dialogues Among Women. Workshop
Report. Washington, DC: Women in International Security. http://www.systemicpeace.org/NBPreport.pdf
Ted Robert Gurr, Monty G. Marshall, and Deepa Khosla. 2000. Peace and Conflict
2001: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and
Democracy. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict
Management, University of Maryland. http://www.systemicpeace.org/PC2001.pdf
Monty G. Marshall. 2002. "Measuring the Societal Impact of War." Chapter 4
in Fen Osler Hampson and David Malone, eds., From Reaction to Conflict Prevention:
Opportunities for the UN System. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers for
the International Peace Academy. http://www.systemicpeace.org/IPAmgm.pdf
Monty G. Marshall, Ted Robert Gurr, Christian Davenport, and Keith Jaggers. 2002. "Polity IV, 1800-1999: Comments on Munck and Verkuilen."
Comparative Political Studies 35.1; 40-45.
Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr. 2003. Peace and Conflict 2003: A
Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy.
College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management,
University of Maryland. http://www.systemicpeace.org/PC2003.pdf
Monty G. Marshall. 2004. "Political Conflict, Measurement of." In Kimberly Kempf-Leonard, editor-in-chief, Encyclopedia of Social Measurement.
San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Monty G. Marshall, and John C. Ulfelder.
2004. "It's all about State Structure-New Findings on Revolutionary Origins
from Global Data." Homo Oeconomicus 21.2; 425-455.
Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr. 2005. Peace and Conflict 2005: A
Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy.
College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management,
University of Maryland. Chapters authored include "Peace and Conflict Ledger,""Global
Trends in Violent Conflict," "Global Trends in Democratization," "Focus on Political
Instability in Africa," and "Global Terrorism." http://www.systemicpeace.org/PC2005.pdf
Monty G. Marshall and Jack Goldstone. 2007. "Global Report on Conflict, Governance,
and State Fragility 2007: Gauging System Performance and Fragility in the Globalization
Era." Foreign Policy Bulletin 17.1 (Winter 2007): 3-21. http://www.systemicpeace.org/Global
Report 2007.pdf
Monty G. Marshall and Benjamin R. Cole. 2008. "Global Report on Conflict,
Governance, and State Fragility 2008." Foreign Policy Bulletin 18.1 (Winter
2008): 3-21. http://www.systemicpeace.org/Global
Report 2008.pdf
Monty G. Marshall. 2008. "Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States:
Assessing the Sources of Systemic Risk." Center for Preventive Action. Working
Paper 1. New York: Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.cfr.org/publication/17638
Technical Reports:
Ted Robert Gurr and Monty G. Marshall. "Ethnopolitical Conflicts
Since 1945: Report of a Global Survey," Technical Report to the
Academic Research Support Program, US Department of Defense,
1990, available from Defense Intelligence College, Washington, DC
20340-5485.
Monty G. Marshall. 1998. The Scientific Study of International Conflict
Processes: Postcards at the Edge of the Millennia. Monograph (National Science
Foundation, contract #B22456A-00-0). Severn, MD: Center for Systemic Peace.
http://www.systemicpeace.org/CSPpaper1.pdf
Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Barbara Harff, Marc A. Levy, Monty G.
Marshall, Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Colin H. Kahl, Pamela T. Surko,
John C. Ulfelder, and Alan N. Unger in consultation with Matthew Christenson,
Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Daniel C. Esty, and Thomas M. Parris. 2000. State Failure
Task Force Report: Phase III Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications
International Corporation (SAIC). http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/pitf/SFTF
Phase III Report Final.pdf
Thomas M. Parris, Douglas Way, Richard Cicone, Monty Marshall, and Marc Levy. 2001. India Sustainable Polity: Methods and Progress.
Cambridge, MA: ISCIENCES, L.L.C
Monty G. Marshall. 2002. Global Terrorism: An Overview and Analysis.
Study commissioned by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
contract #7577 UN/DESA/DSPD/SIB. http://www.systemicpeace.org/CSPpaper3.pdf
Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Barbara Harff, Marc A. Levy, Monty G. Marshall, Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Colin H. Kahl,
Thomas M. Parris, John C. Ulfelder, Mark Woodward, and Michael Lustik. 2003. Political Instability Task Force Report: Phase IV Findings.
McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC).
Ted Robert Gurr, Mark Woodward, and Monty G. Marshall. 2005. "Forecasting
Instability: Are Ethnic Wars and Muslim Countries Different?" Political Instability
Task Force. McLean, VA: SAIC. http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/pitf/PITFethnicmuslim.pdf
Jack A. Goldstone, Robert H. Bates, Ted Robert Gurr, Michael Lustik, Monty
G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder, and Mark Woodward. 2005. "A Global Forecasting Model
of Political Instability." Political Instability Task Force. McLean, VA: SAIC.
http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/pitf/PITFglobal.pdf
Monty G. Marshall. 2005. Conflict Trends in Africa, 1946-2004: A Macro-Comparative
Perspective. UK Government: Africa Conflict Prevention Pool (Department
for International Development). http://www.systemicpeace.org/Conflict
Trends in Africa.pdf
Monty G. Marshall. 2006. "Development of an Indicators Framework for
CEWS (Continental Early Warning System)." African Union: Peace and Security
Council.
Monty G. Marshall. 2006. "Examining the Occurrence and Organization of
Factionalism." US Government: Political Instability Task Force.
Monty G. Marshall. 2007. "Situating the Polity Conceptualization of 'Factionalism'
within a Generalized, Sequential (Systemic) Political Conflict Process."
US Government: Political Instability Task Force.
Data Generation Projects:
Global Terrorism, 1991-2004, Database. Donna Ramsey Marshall and Monty G.
Marshall. Developed to support a UNDESA commissioned study of the "social
roots" of terrorism and the nature of terrorism's threat to global peace
and security. Data on "high profile terrorist attacks" was added in 2005.
Minorities at Risk (MAR) Database. Ted Robert Gurr and Monty G. Marshall.
Currently updated and enhanced through 2003. New version released in March 2005.
Annual data on economic and political discrimination was added in 2005. http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/mar
Polity IV Database, 1800-2005. Ted Robert Gurr, Monty G. Marshall, and Keith
Jaggers. Updated annually. Recent enhancements provide regional trends and individual
country reports detailing Polity coding decisions; new versions: Polity IVd
(case format) and Polity IVe (EUGene format). Data on coups d'etat, 1960-2004,
was added in 2005. http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity4.htm
State Failure Problem Set Database, 1955-2005. Monty G. Marshall, Ted Robert
Gurr, and Barbara Harff. Updated annually. Annual, global time-series list of
state failure events: ethnic and revolutionary wars, genocides and politicides,
and adverse regime changes. http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/pitf/pitfpset.htm
India Sub-national Violent Conflict Events and Crime in India Databases, 1960-2004. Monty G. Marshall, Donna Ramsey Marshall, and Shonali Sardesai.
Developed in 2001 to support GIS-based spatial analysis of structural conditions and social dynamics in India.
Armed Conflict and Intervention (ACI) Databases, 1946-2004. Monty G. Marshall.
Initially developed in 1999 to enable global analysis of external influence
factors for the State Failure project. Datasets include armed conflict and security
environment, political interactions, direct military and peacekeeping interventions,
memberships in conventional international organizations, bilateral trade flows,
and forced population dislocations.
Selected Conference Papers and Presentations:
"Security, Fragility, and the Potential for Violent Conflict: Implications
for the Africa Region." Presentation prepared for the AFRICOM Knowledge
Development Working Group (4): Developing the Africa Knowledge Base held
at the Defense Intelligence Agency in Washington DC, February 27, 2008.
"Security and the Potential for Conflict: Implications for the Africa
Region." Plenary presentation prepared at the request of the UK Government
(Ministry of Defense) for the 891st Wilton Park Conference on Future Trends
and Challenges: Drivers for Change in Africa, held at Wilton Park in the
United Kingdom, January 14-16, 2008.
"Current Challenges and the Risks of Violent Conflict." Presentation
prepared for a Meeting of Conflict Prevention Experts held at the United States
Institute of Peace in Washington DC, September 24, 2007.
"Caveats to the 'Pacification' of the Global System: Global Report on
Governance, Conflict, and Systemic Development." Paper prepared for presentation
on a panel discussion: "Do Enduring Developments Contribute to 1990s Decline
in War?" at the International Studies Association 2007 Annual Meeting in
Chicago, March 1, 2007.
"A Macro-Comparative Analysis of the Problem of Factionalism in Emerging
Democracies" (with Benjamin R. Cole). Paper prepared for presentation at
the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in Chicago, March
1, 2007.
"A Systemic Study of the Social Roots of Terrorism." Presentation
given at an Advanced Research Workshop, Understanding and Responding to Terrorism,
organized by the Turkish Institute of Police Studies and sponsored by NATO in
Washington DC, September 8-9, 2006.
"Examining the Problem of Factionalism and the Role of the One-Party
State in the Transformation to Democratic Authority Systems." Paper delivered
at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association in Philadelphia,
PA, August 31, 2006.
"Terrorism and State Fragility: A Probabilistic Study of the Social Roots
of Terrorism." Presentation given at a Center for Security and International
Studies workshop in Washington DC, May 23, 2006.
"Learning 21st Century Lessons on Conflict."
Keynote address to conference on What Shared Futures? Local and European Challenges
in Diversity and Conflict Management. International Conflict Research (INCORE) and
Northern Ireland Centre for European Co-operation (NICEC), Limavady, Northern Ireland, UK, March 23-24, 2006.
"Conflict and Governance 2005: A Regional Focus on the Muslim World."
Presentation prepared for delivery at the Istanbul Conference on Democracy and
Global Security sponsored by the Office of the Prime Minister and the Turkish
National Police, held in Istanbul, Turkey, June 9-11, 2005.
"Peace and Conflict 2005." Presentation prepared for delivery at an Expert Workshop on the "State and Violence" organized
by the Australian Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies and held at the University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, April 4, 2005.
Analyzing Future Risks of Failure in Selected Countries Using General Empirical Models. Presentation prepared for delivery at an
International Conference of Experts, "States at Risk - Stabilization and State-Building by External Intervention," sponsored by Stiftung
Wissenschaft und Politik and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, held in Berlin, Germany, June 14-15, 2004.
Democratization and Conflict: Problems and Issues. Presentation prepared for delivery at an International Conference of Experts,
"Democratic Institutions: Governance and Civil War," held in Bellagio, Italy, June 7-9, 2004.
A Survey of Conflict Since the End of the Cold War: Is the Past a Prologue? Paper prepared for presentation at a Conference in
Support of the Global Trends 2020 Project of the National Intelligence Council, "The Changing Nature of Warfare," held in Alexandria, VA, May 25-26, 2004.
Linking Qualitative and Quantitative Research. Presentation delivered to an International Conference of Experts, "Understanding Civil War:
Quantity versus Quality? Toward More Effective Collaboration between Quantitative and Qualitative Conflict Research Communities," held in
Bellagio, Italy, April 5-7, 2004.
Workshop: Assessing Weak and Failing States. Four part series: 1) Societal-Systems Analysis: Discontinuities and Risk Surfaces;
2) Global Terrorism; 3) Peace-Building Capacities of States; and 4) Governance and Democratization. Series of presentations delivered to a
cross-Whitehall "Weak and Failing States" project team of the UK Government at the Department for International Development,
London, UK, March 12, 2004.
Approaches to and Causes of State Failure - Societal-Systems Analysis: Discontinuities and Risk Surfaces. Presentation delivered to
an International Conference of Experts, "States at Risk - Stabilization and State-Building by External Intervention," sponsored by
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik and held at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, January 20-21, 2004.
Symposium: Societal Systems Analysis - Understanding Complex Conflict and Development Dynamics in Self-Organizing and Self-Actuating
Societal Systems. Four part series: 1) The Scientific Study of International Conflict Processes; 2) Social Forms: Social Connectivity and
Societal Development; 3) Integration and Disintegration in Societal Systems; and 4) Global Systems Analysis: Discontinuities and Risk Surfaces.
Series of presentations delivered at the "Winter Workshop in Nonlinear and Complex Systems" at the Laboratory of Statistical and Computational
Physics, Institute of Physics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Republic of China, January 12-13, 2004.
Conflict Datasets that Rely on Coders' Judgments. Presentation delivered to the International Conference of Experts, "Mapping and Explaining
Civil War: What to Do About Contested Databases and Findings," held in Oslo, Norway, August 18-19, 2003.
Polity IV Data Series, 1800-2001. Presentation delivered to the World Peace Foundation conference on "Measuring Governance," held at the Kennedy
School of Government, Harvard University, May 9-10, 2003.
How Do We Better Measure Democratic Governance? Presentation delivered at the Africa Regional Symposium on the UNDP Human Development Report 2002,
"Deepening Democracy in Africa," held in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, October 11-12, 2002.
Global Systems Analysis: What Can Open Information Contribute to Conflict Management and the Avoidance of Future Catastrophes. Keynote Address
delivered to the Open Source Solutions II workshop on "The New Craft of Intelligence," held in Arlington, VA, May 9-10, 2002.
Societal System Susceptibility to Violent Conflict. Paper presented at the International Interdisciplinary Exploration of Experts,
"Structural Threats to Social Integrity: Social Roots of Violent Conflict and Indicators for Prevention," held at the United Nations,
New York, NY, December 18-20, 2001.
The Data Issue: What is Available and Useful. Presentation delivered at an Expert Workshop on the Feasibility of a Human Security Report,
"Security with a Human Face," held at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard Univerity, Cambridge, MA, December 1-2, 2001.
Authority, Opportunity, and the Outbreak of State Failure Events. Paper prepared for presentation at the International Conference of
Experts, "Identifying Wars: Systematic Conflict Research and Its Utility in Conflict Resolution and Prevention," held in Uppsala, Sweden,
June 8-9, 2001.
Polity IV: The Continuing Evolution of a Dynamic Data Series (co-authored with Christian Davenport, Ted Gurr, and Keith Jaggers).
Paper prepared for presentation at the Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting in Chicago, IL, April 25-29, 2001.
Measuring the Societal Impact of Warfare. Paper prepared for presentation at the Expert Workshop, "From Reaction to Prevention: Opportunities
for the UN System in the New Millennium," jointly sponsored by the Government of Sweden, the International Peace Academy, and the Executive
Office of the Secretary-General (UN) in West Point, NY, January 31-February 1, 2000.
Social Integration, Conflict Prevention, and Societal Development: A Systemic Perspective. Training session for UN staff, prepared and
presented under the auspices of the UN Development Programme at the United Nations Headquarters, New York City, November 24, 1999.
The Minorities at Risk Project: Lessons, Limits, New Directions (co-authored with Ted Robert Gurr and Anne Pitsch). Paper prepared for
presentation at the 1999 American Political Science Association Annual Meeting in Atlanta, GA, September 1-5, 1999.
Gender Empowerment and the Willingness of States to Use Force (co-authored with Donna Ramsey). Paper prepared for presentation at the 1999
International Studies Association Annual Meeting in Washington, DC, February 19-22, 1999.
Societal Disintegration and "Arrested Development": A Systemic View.
Paper prepared for presentation at the International Conference of Experts:
"Federalism Against Ethnicity? Institutional, Legal, and Democratic Instruments
to Prevent or Resolve Violent Minority Conflicts," held in Basel, Switzerland,
September 27-29, 1995.
Systems at Risk: Protracted Conflict, Insecurity, and Political Ethnicity; Violence, Diffusion, and Disintegration in the Middle East.
Paper prepared for presentation at "The International Dimensions of Ethnic Conflict" conference at McGill University in Montreal, Ontario, Canada,
June 3-5, 1994.
Working Papers:
Monty G. Marshall. 1990. "Soviet Nationalities Policy: A Theoretical Account of Lenin's Final Victory."
Monty G. Marshall. 1991. "Perestroika and Ethnopolitics in the Soviet Union: The Bolshevik Revolution in Pantomime."
William M. Reisinger and Monty G. Marshall. 1991. "Tajikistan."
Monty G. Marshall. 1993. "Toward an Understanding of Regime Transitions in Eastern Europe: Socialist Democracy and the Evolution of Political Society."
Monty G. Marshall and Donna Ramsey. 1998. "Gender Empowerment and the
Willingness of States to Use Force."
Donna Ramsey. 1998. "Shattering the Silence: Mothers Confront the Latin
American Terrorist State."
Monty G. Marshall. 2006. "Understanding the Problem of Factionalism in
Weak and Emerging Democracies." (in development)
Monty G. Marshall. 2006. "The Role of the One-Party State in Transitions
from Autocracy to Democracy." (in development)
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