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The Center
for Systemic Peace (CSP) was founded
in 1997. It is engaged in innovative research on the problem of political
violence within the structural context of the dynamic global system, that
is, global systems analysis. The Center supports scientific research and
quantitative analysis in many issue areas related to the fundamental problems
of violence in both human relations and societal development. The focus
of CSP research is on the possibilities of complex systemic management
of all manner of societal and systemic conflicts. The Center regularly
monitors and reports on general trends in societal-system performance,
at the global, regional, and state levels of analysis and in the key systemic
dimensions of conflict, governance, and (human and physical) development.
The Center is currently affiliated with the Center
for Global Policy at George Mason University.
One day we must come to see that peace is not merely a distant goal
that we seek, but that it is a means by which we arrive at that goal.
We must pursue peaceful ends through peaceful means. -- Martin Luther
King, Jr. (1929-1968)
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Global Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2009
The Global System continues on its path of recovery that began with
the ending of the Cold war in late 1991, despite the tragedy that
has befallen Iraq since 2003 and the shocks associated with much-touted
"global war on terrorism." The total magnitude of armed
conflict in the global system has declined by over 60% and the number
of states experiencing wars has been cut in half (less than 15%) since
the peak year (1992). The number of new wars breaking out remains
fairly constant at about 4 new wars per year. Particularly troubling
are the cluster of wars in the Middle East, especially those in Afghanistan,
Iraq, Pakistan, and Yemen; the violent anarchy engulfing central Africa,
and the increasing threat posed by organized crime and drug trafficking.
The use of "total war" tactics in eliminating the LTTE in
Sri Lanka raises concerns that the search for political settlements
may give way to the apparent expediency of extreme military solutions
in the world's more intractable conflicts.
Click on the chart on the left to go the
the CSP Conflict Trends page. |
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High Casualty Terrorist Bombings, 3/11/1993-3/10/2010
"Global Terrorism" is often identified as a key security
threat. Indeed, the numbers of people killed in "high casualty
terrorist bombings" (HCTB--bomb attacks on non-combatant targets
resulting in 15 deaths or more) increased dramatically after the September
11, 2001, attacks on the United States. However, most of these attacks
have been concentrated in a handful of locations in the Middle East
and South Asia and have taken place mainly in Iraq and Pakistan in
recent years. There was a dramatic surge in HCTB attacks in Iraq in
the first eight months of 2007 (claiming more than 3,761 lives and
87% of the global total during that period). Attacks in Iraq dropped
sharply beginning in early September 2007, falling from 2677 deaths
in the previous six-month period to average about 700 deaths in subsequent
periods. Attacks increased in Pakistan in 2007, climbing to 816 deaths
in the most recent period.
Click on the chart to view the list of HCTB
attacks. |
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Global Trends in Governance, 1946-2009
Perhaps ironically, the "third wave of democratization"
that accompanied the end of the Cold War is mainly accounted by transformations
to democracy in many former-Socialist Bloc countries and former-Soviet
republics. The shift away from autocratic to "anocratic"
regimes since the early 1980s has been most dramatic in the poorer
countries of Africa. Autocracies persist in war-torn countries and
in oil-producing states; the first impediment to democracy (war) disporportionately
characterizes politics in Asia and both conditions impede democratization
in many Muslim countries; however, "Muslim democracies"
such as Turkey, Malaysia, and Indonesia continue to develop in the
calmer areas around the periphery of the Muslim region.
Click on the chart to go the the Polity IV Project page. |
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Global System - Income Distribution,
1992 and 2005
Prospects for the peaceful development of the global system in the
Globalization Era can be summarized by plotting the distribution of
income among the 162 (larger) states that comprise the system. A "Lorenz
curve" plots unit shares of total income (GDP) against shares
of total population in a system; the diagonal line plots "perfect
equality." Well-performing societal-systems, such as the United
States and Europe, are largely stable, democratic, affluent, and have
converged on income equality among constituent units; poorly-performing
systems are characterized by poverty, unequal income, violent conflict,
uneven development, and poor qualities of governance. Global System
income shows vast income inequalities among constituent states with
only modest improvement since the end of the Cold War. The global
curve indicates the absense of a "middle class" that could
mediate between the powerful and the powerless.
Click the chart to go to the Comparative
Regionalism page. |
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Fragile States Index and Matrix 2008
Effective conflict management results from a congruence between state
capacity and the systemic risk factors that "fuel" conflict
dynamics and the escalation to violence. Global Report 2009
is now available; it includes a detailed assessment of "state
fragility" for each of the world's 162 major countries (with
populations greater than 500,000) that comprises a 2x4 matrix of indicators
(effectiveness and legitimacy indicators for security, governance,
economic, and social dimensions of state performance). In
Global Report 2009 we chronicle a 19% overall improvement in
state fragility in the global system since 1995.
Click on the map to compare global fragility
maps for 1995, 2001, and 2008 and summaries of net changes in fragility
since 1995. |
It is easier to lead men to combat, stirring up their passion, than
to restrain them and direct them toward the patient labors of peace.
-- Andre Gide (1869-1951)
CSP Conflict Trends and War List, 1946-2009
The Center for Systemic Peace's societal-systemic analyses are supported
by the Center's extensive data collection activities, including the Armed
Conflict and Intervention (ACI) and Polity IV projects. Situations around
the world are monitored on a daily basis and the information gathered
is used to reevaluate current conditions and indentify changes in those
conditions. Our data collections and trends graphs are updated annually;
most of our trends graphs are now updated through 2009 and our "war
list" has been updated through mid-2010. To review these valuable
systemic performance evaluations, click on War List
or Conflict Trends on the CSP Menu Bar, above.
The Center also provides information, and consultation, with the US Government's
Political Instability Task Force (PITF); click on State
Failure on the CSP Menu Bar to access the public resource Web site
of the PITF.
Polity™IV:
Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2009
The Center for Systemic Peace, in conjunction with the Center for Global
Policy, manages and directs the well-known and highly respected Polity
Project and Data Series. Polity is a registered trademark. The Polity
IV Project data resources support many of our systemic analyses and are
being made publicly available through the CSP Web site. The Polity IV
products include the Polity IV annual time-series and country-regime datasets,
global and regional trends in governance, individual Country Reports for
each of the (currently) 163 countries covered by the data series, and
a new data series on coups and other non-conventional changes in executive
leadership (1946-2009). Click on Polity
IV on the CSP Menu Bar to gain access to the Polity IV Country Report
2008 series. The Polity IV version 2009 data resources are now part of
the INSCR Datasets Library (see below).
INSCR
Datasets
The Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) Program
at the Center for Systemic Peace manages, develops, and maintains several
electronic data resources that are used to support its societal-systems
analyses, including the CSP Major Episodes of Political Violence dataset
(annual time-series version of the CSP war list), PITF Problem Set (revolutionary
and ethnic wars, genocides and politicides, and adverse regime changes,
including annual magnitude scores for ongoing episodes), Polity IV annual
regime (annual time-series and polity-case formats) and coup-event datasets,
forcibly displaced populations (compiled from the US Committee for Refugees
and Immigrants' annual World Refugee Survey), and the India Sub-National
Problem Set (violent conflicts) and Crime in India annual data
on riots, murders, and dacoity. INSCR datasets are available in SPSS or
Excel formats (or both); each dataset has an acompanying codebook in PDF
format. To review the INSCR dataset codebooks or to download data files,
click on INSCR
Datasets in the CSP Menu Bar, above.
Center
for Systemic Peace Virtual Library
The Center for Systemic Peace makes publicly available all its published
global systems analyses as electronic books and documents (in PDF format);
these can be viewed or downloaded from our virtual library. The CSP library
includes the Global Report, Peace and Conflict, and CSP
Occasional Papers series, as well as our special reports on Conflict Trends
in Africa, Global Terrorism, and Gender and Conflict. The library also
includes the full-length edition of the seminal book on systemic peace,
Third World War. To review these files, or to download copies,
click on Virtual Library in the CSP Menu Bar,
above.
CSP
Needs Your Help! Please Consider A Contribution
to Help Support Our Center
The Center for Systemic Peace's main mission is to provide the highest
quality information and systemic analyses to help inform the widest possible
audience; all of our work is made available to the public without charge.
Over the years, our product base has expanded enormously and, so, to ensure
the continuing operations of the Center, to maintain the highest quality,
and to support the free distribtution of our information resources, please
consider making a donation to the Center. Click the E-Mail
link, below, or contact the Center by mail or phone (below) for more information
on how you or your organization can help!
To contact CSP, click the email link below.
mgmarshall@systemicpeace.org
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CSP
Director: Dr. Monty G. Marshall
Monty G. Marshall left the university system on July 31, 2010, and
is now President of a private research enterprise: Societal-Systems
Research Inc; this private initiative will continue to produce the
high-quality information resources that form the foundation of the
Center for Systemic Peace. His most recent academic position was Research
Professor in the School of Public Policy and Director of Research
for the Center for Global Policy
at George Mason University. He is the director of the Polity IV project,
which provides annual assessments of autocracy, democracy, and regime
transitions, and the Armed Conflict and Intervention (ACI) project,
which monitors all forms of armed conflict and international influence
structures. Since 1998, Dr. Marshall has served as a senior consultant
with the US Government's State Failure Task Force (now known as the
Political Instability Task Force). He has consulted frequently with
the UN, USAID, DIfD, and the National Geographic Society, and many
other national agencies and international organizations. Before taking
the position at GMU, he was a Senior Research Associate at the Center
for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM), University
of Maryland, where he directed the Integrated Network for Societal
Conflict Research (INSCR) program from 1998-2005; he is a co-founder
and was principle author, editor, and researcher for CIDCM's Peace
and Conflict series. He also co-authored the original Minorities
at Risk data series (with Ted Gurr) and was a Co-Director of that
project.
Current research focuses on systems analyses of societal conflict
processes and the impact of global influence networks on local conflict
dynamics. His theory and evidence detailing the problem of political
violence within the context of societal and systemic development processes
and the diffusion of insecurity in protracted conflict regions are
reported in Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics
(Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999). Other recent publications
include "Global Trends in Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility
2008" (Foreign Policy Bulletin v18.1:3-21); "Fragility,
Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic
Risk" for the Center for Preventive Action, Council on Foreign
Relations (2008); and "Measuring the Societal Effects of War"
in Hampson and Malone, eds., From Reaction to Conflict Prevention:
Opportunities for the UN System (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002).
He holds degrees in political science from the University of Colorado,
University of Maryland, and The University of Iowa and held a prestigious
University of Iowa Fellowship from 1990 to 1993. He also taught courses
full-time at the University of South Florida, 1994-1997. |
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CSP
Executive Director: Dr. Min Zaw Oo
Min Zaw Oo joined CSP in 2010, although he worked on several related
projects beginning in 2006. Min holds university degrees from the
University of Maryland (BA 2000; Public Relations/Government and Politics);
Georgetown University (MA 2008; Security Studies); and George Mason
University (MS 2002 and PhD 2010; Conflict Analysis and Resolution).
His Doctoral Dissertation is titled, From Democratic Transition
to Consolidation: The Analysis of 115 Democratic Transitions in Eighty-Six
Countries from 1955 to 2007, and he was awarded a PhD in May 2010
by the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution (ICAR) program
at George Mason University. Min came to the United States initially
under a scholarship program funded by the US Department of State.
He has served as the director for outreach and strategy at Washington-based
Free Burma Coalition which was a vehicle to promote international
support to democratization in Burma. |
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CSP
Research Associate: Donna Ramsey Marshall
Donna Ramsey Marshall joined CSP in 1998. She has worked with the
Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the
University of Maryland and the United States Institute of Peace, where
she is currently working on the development of its proposed Peace
Education Center. She has research interests in international humanitarian
law, non-violent social movements, and gender and conflict. Recent
publications include Women in War and Peace: Grassroots Peace Building
(USIP Press, 2000) and New Bridges to Peace: Enhancing National
and International Security by Expanding Policy Dialogues Among Women
(Women in International Security, 2001). She is a 1997-98 Rotary Ambassadorial
Scholar and holds a Master of Arts with Distinction in International
Conflict Analysis from the University of Kent at Canterbury (England). |
Center for Systemic Peace
7939 Heather Mist Dr.
Severn, MD 21144
USA
(202) 236-9298
This web page was last updated on July 30, 2010 © CSP
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