Polity5 Regime Narratives 2018


The Polity5 Country-Process Narrative format has been developed for the refinement of the Polity5 data series; each country's narrative account provides a chronological explanation of the systemic process of changing political authority as captured in that country's Polity scores from 1946, or its date of independence, through 2018; some begin just prior to the first (contemporary) recorded episode of "factionalism" (see below). This new report format will increases the transparency of the data series and enhances understanding of both the particular application of  the Polity coding scheme to a country's "historical record" and the observable process of managing regime authority amid political macro-level dynamics during the contemporary Globalization Era. Democratic authority in the contemporary period differs substantively from democratic authority in earlier periods as it necessarily involves universal suffrage as a defining principle, whereas earlier forms of democracy were based on limited suffrage in which a majority of constituents and marginal groups remained disenfranchised.

The contemporary era The Polity5 Project review and refinement effort is being conducted in response to the increasing use of the Polity data series in quantitative research in order to increase the veracity of the individual data components and the ability to conduct more detailed analysis based on the component and conceptual indicators that comprise the POLITY index; the Polity5 review and refinement process is ongoing. Only completed Polity5 narratives are provided here; the completed narratives at this time cover mainly countries that have experienced a period (or periods) of [polar] "factionalism" (PARCOMP = 3). This coded condition was singled out through extensive quantitative modeling and has been identified as the most powerful precusor to regime instability events including autocratic backsliding and onsets of civil warfare (factional groupings for each period of factionalism are identified in the narratives). The successful management of [polar] "factionalism" by regime authorities has also been found to be key to the consolidation and resilience of democratic authority. Additional country narratives will be included as they are completed.

Note: Countries highlighted in red in the table below experienced at least one episode of [polar] "factionalism" (PARCOMP=3; POLCOMP=6 or 7) and/or "state failure" (POLITY=-77; "interregnum," a more extreme form of factionalism that fractures the state, denoted with darker shade of red in the table below) during the contemporary period, 1946 to present. The Polity5 regime narrative for the United States covers the entire period since its date of independence, 1776-2020.

 

North America
Canada Guatemala Mexico United States
Costa Rica Haiti Nicaragua  
Cuba Honduras Panama  
Dominican Republic Jamaica El Salvador  

South America
Argentina Colombia Peru Venezuela
Bolivia Ecuador Suriname  
Brazil Guyana Trinidad & Tobago  
Chile Paraguay Uruguay  

Europe
Albania Finland Luxembourg Serbia
Austria France Macedonia Slovakia
Belarus Germany Moldova Slovenia
Belgium Greece Montenegro Spain
Bosnia Hungary Netherlands Sweden
Bulgaria Ireland Norway Switzerland
Croatia Italy Poland United Kingdom
Czech Republic Kosovo Portugal Ukraine
Denmark Latvia Romania  
Estonia Lithuania Russia  

Asia and the Pacific
Afghanistan Japan North Korea Taiwan
Australia Kazakhstan Pakistan Tajikistan
Bangladesh Kyrgyzstan Papua New Guinea Thailand
Bhutan Laos Philippines Timor Leste
Cambodia Malaysia Singapore Turkmenistan
China Mongolia South Korea Uzbekistan
Fiji Myanmar South Vietnam Vietnam
India Nepal Solomon Islands  
Indonesia New Zealand Sri Lanka  

North Africa and the the Middle East
Algeria Georgia Libya Qatar
Armenia Iran Mali Saudi Arabia
Azerbaijan Iraq Mauritania Syria
Bahrain Israel Morocco Tunisia
Chad Jordan Niger Turkey
Cyprus Kuwait North Sudan United Arab Emirates
Egypt Lebanon Oman Yemen

Sub-Saharan Africa
Angola Cote d'Ivoire Lesotho Somalia
Benin Djibouti Liberia South Africa
Botswana Equatorial Guinea Madagascar South Sudan
Burkina Faso Eritrea Malawi Swaziland
Burundi Ethiopia Mauritius Tanzania
Cameroon Gabon Mozambique Togo
Cape Verde Gambia Namibia Uganda
Central African
Republic
Ghana Nigeria Zambia
Comoros Guinea-Bissau Rwanda Zimbabwe
Dem. Republic
of Congo
Guinea Senegal  
Republic of Congo Kenya Sierra Leone  

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