Global Report series

Global Report on Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility 2008
Monty G. Marshall and Benjamin R. Cole
Black and white, 19 pages, 8 figures, 1 tables
Publisher: Foreign Policy Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, 2008
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Global Report 2008 is the second edition in the Center for Global Policy's annual report series on global system performance and fragility in the Globalization Era. The Global Report continues to monitor the key trends in armed conflict, high casualty terrorist bombings, and regime governance formally featured in the Peace and Conflict series (below); the global trends are updated through 2007. The 2008 edition includes a section analyzing contemporary trends in State Fragility (since 1995) and compares variations in performance across six regional sub-systems. The analysis highlights a nearly 20% reduction in state fragility at the global level since 1995. The Report includes a detailed assessment of "state fragility" for each of the world's 162 major countries (with populations greater than 500,000); the State Fragility Index and Matrix comprises a 2x4 matrix of indicators (effectiveness and legitimacy indicators for security, governance, economic, and social dimensions of state performance) and composite indices of (il)legitimacy, (in)effectiveness, and state fragility. In support of the analysis, annual state fragility scores were calculated for each country for each year beginning with 1995.

Global Report on Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility 2007:
Gauging System Performance and Fragility in the Globalization Era
Monty G. Marshall and Jack Goldstone
Black and white, 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 tables
Publisher: Foreign Policy Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, 2007
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Global Report 2007 is the first edition in the Center for Global Policy's annual report series on global system performance and fragility in the Globalization Era that began with the collapse of the Socialist Bloc in 1991. Global Report continues to monitor the key trends in armed conflict, high casualty terrorist bombings, and regime governance formally featured in the Peace and Conflict series (below); the global trends are updated through 2006. The 2007 edition includes a section on "comparative regionalism" that gauges regional sub-system performance profiles based on general levels of systemic development (regional income distribution) in 1992 and 2005 and compares income across six regional sub-systems. It also briefly assesses the issue of energy independence (oil). The Report includes a detailed assessment of "state fragility" for each of the world's 162 major countries (with populations greater than 500,000) that comprises a 2x4 matrix of indicators (effectiveness and legitimacy indicators for security, governance, economic, and social dimensions of state performance) and composite indices of (il)legitimacy, (in)effectiveness, and fragility.

Peace and Conflict series

Peace and Conflict 2005: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy
Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr
Full-color, 92 pages, 15 figures, 12 tables
Publisher: CIDCM, University of Maryland, 2005
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Peace and Conflict 2005 is the third edition in the Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) Program's biennial global report series. This full-color, 92-page global report details major trends in armed conflict, self-determination movements, and democracy through the contemporary era, 1946-2004, and provides a "conflict ledger" assessing each country's "peace-building capacity" in 2005. The 2005 edition of the report complements the 2003 and 2001 editions by updating the featured trends and issues raised in the earlier reports, and updating its descriptions of the status of major armed conflicts and self-determination movements. The 2005 report also incorporates new features on the decline of political discrimination, instability in Africa, assessing risks of genocide and politicide, and the societal-systemic roots of global terrorism.

Peace and Conflict 2003: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy
Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr
Full-color, 64 pages, 11 figures, 8 tables
Publisher: CIDCM, University of Maryland, 2003
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Peace and Conflict 2003 is the second edition in the Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) Program's biennial global report series. This full-color, 64-page global report details major trends in armed conflict, self-determination movements, and democracy through the contemporary era, 1946-2002, and provides a "conflict ledger" assessing each country's "peace-building capacity" in 2003. The 2003 edition of the report complements the 2001 edition by updating the trends and issues raised in the earlier report, expanding its analysis of global and regional trends in democratization, extending its analysis of self-determination movements to examine group grievances and strategies, and updating its descriptions of the status of major armed conflicts and self-determination movements. The 2003 report also incorporates new features on anti-globalization protest and international crises.

Peace and Conflict 2001: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy
Ted Robert Gurr, Monty G. Marshall, and Deepa Khosla
Full-color, 32 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables
Publisher: CIDCM, University of Maryland, 2001
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Peace and Conflict 2001 is the first publication from the Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) Program. This full-color, 32-page "global report card" details major trends in armed conflict, self-determination movements, and democracy through the contemporary era (1946-2000) and provides a "conflict ledger" assessing each country's "peace-building capacity" at the turn of the new millennium. It features global and regional analyses of trends in armed conflict and comprehensive surveys of the status of armed conflicts since 1995 and self-determination movements since 1946.

Other CSP studies

Conflict Trends in Africa, 1946-2004:
A Macro-Comparative Perspective
Monty G. Marshall
Full-color, 78 pages, 20 figures, 10 statistical annexes, executive summary
Publisher: Africa Conflict Prevention Pool, DfID (UK), 2006
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Conflict Trends in Africa was commissioned by the Africa Conflict Prevention Pool (ACPP) of the Government of the United Kingdom and contracted by the Department for International Development (DfID). Sub-Saharan Africa is an extremely weak and volatile regional sub-system in the globalizing world system; pervasive and persistent violence has confounded efforts to improve economic capacity and performance in the region. Eight macro-comparative perspectives on conflict trends in Africa are charted in order to establish a fairly comprehensive picture and understanding of the background of the situation in the region in mid-2005. Regional variations in three principal conflict trends are then presented for the Central, East,West, and Southern regions of Africa. The report uses macro-comparative, statistical modeling to identify key explanatory factors in state formation and post-formation instability in African states and general peace-building capacity. The report concludes with discussions of three models that help to explain the conditions that undermine stability and limit the capacity of African states to better manage societal conflicts.

Global Terrorism: An Overview and Analysis
Monty G. Marshall
Black and white, 48 pages, 5 figures, 7 tables, 3 statistical appendices
Publisher: Center for Systemic Peace, Occasional Paper 3, 2002
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Global Terrorism was commissioned by the United Nations Department of Economic and Socal Affairs (UNDESA) shortly after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States to "undertake a broad evidence based overview and detailed analysis of the ways in which terrorism presents a fundamental threat to societies and the global social order in order to help guide the SIB/DSPD in refining its peace-building/social integration strategy, including collaboration with the UN Terrorism Branch (UNDCCP) in addressing the social roots of terrorism." For the purposes of this study, two operationalized conceptions of "terrorism" were designed, measured, and analyzed. Both measures, "excessive targeting of civilian populations in armed conflicts" and "tactical terrorism," focus on the global problem of terrorism in the decade preceding the 9/11 attacks: the 1990s.

Third World War:
System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics
Monty G. Marshall
Black and white, 303 pages, 68 figures, 15 tables, index
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 1999
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Third World War contains a systems analysis of violent conflict within the dynamic context of societal-systems development and the diffusion of insecurity through complex societal networks. The "third world war" is the most recent of the global systemic wars of the twentieth century that have characterized the deconstruction and transformation of the Euro-centric "colonial" global system in the age of complex technological systems, mass communication, and open information. The "Third Word war" plagues the newly independent states of the Third World as they struggle to establish modern, central authority and guide their societies, distorted by years, decades, and, even, centuries of foreign domination, through the enormous challenges and pressures of the Cold War and Globalization Eras. The wars in the Third World are largely domestic conflicts fought primarily by amatuers. The book theorizes a syndrome of pervasive insecurity and arrested development; it documents and explains the spatial patterns of protracted political violence in the aftermath of the Second World War; a period of steadily increasing magnitudes of violence, state failures, and humanitarian crises leading to the end of the Cold War and the beginning of the Globalization Era.

The Scientific Study of International Conflict Processes:
Postcards at the Edge of the Millennia
Monty G. Marshall
Black and white, 81 pages, 6 figures, 1 table
Publisher: Center for Systemic Peace, Occasional Paper 1, 1998
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The Scientific Study of International Conflict Processes was originally commissioned by the National Science Foundation in May 1997 through contract #B22456A-00-0; its general content is outlined in that contract's Statement of Work. The National Science Foundation is not responsible for the views stated herein. The purpose of this study is to chart progression and examine the current "state of the art" as regards the scientific study of international conflict processes. A special purpose of this study is to consider the contributions made toward the advancement of the science of international conflict processes through funding allocated by the National Science Foundation (NSF), an agency of the United States Government.

Gender Empowerment and the
Willingness of States to Use Force
Monty G. Marshall and Donna Ramsey Marshall
Black and white, 46 pages, 1 figures, 5 tables, 2 appendices
Publisher: Center for Systemic Peace, Occasional Paper 2, 1999
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Gender Empowerment and the Willingness of States to Use Force examines a nexus between feminist theory, which argues that "gender" is an important explanatory variable in the willingness of states (and other political actors) to use force in conflict interactions and democratic peace theory, which claims that "democracy" is important in explaining the willingness to use force. Following the lead of those who claim that it is the "entrenchment" of democratic values, rather than the democratic form of government, that lessens the predilection of states to use force in political relations, the authors propose that the quality of democratic entrenchment can be measured by the degree of "gender empowerment." Using data on 88 countries in a series of best fit regression analyses, the study finds strong support for the feminist proposition as complementary to the democratic peace understandings of the resort to force in foreign policy.

Women in War and Peace:
Grassroots Peacebuilding
Donna Ramsey Marshall
Black and white, 30 pages
Publisher: United States Institute of Peace, 2000
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Women in War and Peace was commissioned by the United States Institute of Peace. The United States Institute of Peace strives, through research, education, and training, to understand the role of nongovernmental entities in bringing about a stable peace in conflict-torn societies. Toward that end, on September 14, 1999, the Institute's Research and Studies Program convened a seminar entitled "Perspectives on Grassroots Peacebuilding: The Roles of Women in War and Peace," which drew together more than sixty representatives of the policy community, academia, and nongovernmental organizations. This report draws on presentations and comments made at the seminar and specifically examines the role of women in addressing the issues of conflict resolution and peacebuilding.

New Bridges to Peace:
Enhancing National and International Security by Expanding
Policy Dialogues Among Women
Donna Ramsey Marshall, raporteur
Black and white, 57 pages
Publisher: Women in International Security (WIIS), 2001
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New Bridges to Peace reports on a 2001 workshop organized by Women in International Security (WIIS). Drawing together forty-five representatives of grassroots movements, nongovernmental organizations, academia, and the foreign policy community, WIIS envisioned the workshop as a way to bridge the gap between women activists and organizers working for peace "on the ground" and women working on peace and security issues at the national and international levels. The workshop was organized around the proposal that the international community must now move beyond simply recognizing women's contributions to peace and security and actively foster dialogue and collaboration among women toiling at all levels of societies. For while women are often among the hardest-hit victims of modern intrastate conflict, they are also often the most active agents of change, agitating for peace, reconciliation, and reconstruction in divided communities.

To view a full listing of CSP publications, documents, data collection projects, and conference presentations,
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