This chart presents the individual plots for the onsets of the three categories of political instability events: major democratic transitions, adverse regime changes, and major political violence. The "major democratic transition" category is right-censored by definition (regimes with POLITY scores of 6 or higher can not experience shifts of five points or more). The "adverse regime change" category is strongly left-censored but not completely, as it includes cases involving a "collapse of central authority" which can occur in any regime. What may be the most interesting plot is that of the onsets of "major political violence" that shows only a slightly higher risk of political violence in anocracies as compared with autocracies and a substantially lower risk in democracies. Adverse regime change is the more likely form of political instability in democracies and may signify an attempt to forestall the onset of major political violence in these regimes. For autocracies, the risks are similar for democratic reform, on the one hand, and a lapse into major political violence or a collapse of central authority, on the other hand. (The dashed line presents the general likelihood for the onset of political instability.)


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