for Systemic Peace (CSP) was founded
in 1997. It is engaged in innovative research on the problem of political
violence within the structural context of the dynamic global system, that
is, global systems analysis. The Center supports scientific research and
quantitative analysis in many issue areas related to the fundamental problems
of violence in both human relations and societal development. The focus
of CSP research is on the possibilities of complex systemic management
of all manner of societal and systemic conflicts. The Center regularly
monitors and reports on general trends in societal-system performance,
at the global, regional, and state levels of analysis and in the key systemic
dimensions of conflict, governance, and (human and physical) development
in the sincere belief that the foundation and guarantor of good governance
is an active, informed public.
One day we must come to see that peace is not merely a distant goal
that we seek, but that it is a means by which we arrive at that goal.
We must pursue peaceful ends through peaceful means. -- Martin Luther
King, Jr. (1929-1968)
The updated 2011 edition in the Global Report series
was published on December 1, 2011, by the Center for Systemic Peace;
the 44-page electronic copy includes the full listing of 2010 State
Fragility scores for 164 countries of the world. Back issues in the
Global Report series are available in the CSP
Virtual Library. To view the 2011 report click the cover icon
on the left or "Global Report" at the top of the button
bar at the left margin. Click the following link to view a PDF copy
of the 2011 State Fragility scores
for 165 countries or the 2012 State Fragility scores for 167 countries of the world (Luxembourg and South Sudan added): Global Report 2013 will be published in Fall 2013.
For a comparative view of fragility indices, see the report published
by the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations,
and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk"
by CSP Director Monty G. Marshall (October 2008).
Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability" was published
by the members of the Political Instability Task Force in the January
2010 edition of the American Journal of Political Science.
Click the link to view a PDF copy of the study. CSP Director Monty
G. Marshall contributed an article,"The
Measurement of Democracy and the Means of History, " for
a Symposium on Measuring Democracy published in Society (Jan/Feb
2011, pp.24-35); he also wrote a Spotlight article, titled "The
New Democratic Order: Complex Societal-Systems and the 'Invisible
Hand'," for the Spring 2011 edition of the Harvard International
All CSP publications are, or will be, posted in the CSP
Virtual Library. CSP also provides governance, conflict, and terror
data for the National Geographic Society atlases, including
the Atlas of the World, Visual Atlas of the World, Family Reference
Atlas, Collegiate Atlas of the World, Concise Atlas of the World,
Student Atlas of the World, and Atlas of the Middle East.
||Global Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2012
The Global System's dramatic recovery that began with the ending of
the Cold war in late 1991 has slowed down in the early years of the
21st century; the most recent year has recorded an increase in societal
armed conflict mainly concentrated in the Arab League states. The
total magnitude of armed conflict in the global system has declined
by over 60% and the number of states experiencing wars has been cut
in half (less than 15%) since the peak year (1992). The number of
new wars breaking out remains fairly constant at about 4 new wars
per year. Particularly troubling are the cluster of wars in the Middle
East, especially those in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Syria,
and Yemen, and increasing pressure on Iran; the violent anarchy engulfing
central Africa, and the increasing threat posed by organized crime
and drug trafficking in Latin America and West Africa.
Click on the chart on the left to go the
the CSP Conflict Trends page.
||High Casualty Terrorist Bombings,
"Global Terrorism" is often identified as a global security
threat. Indeed, the numbers of people killed in "high casualty
terrorist bombings" (HCTB: bomb attacks on non-combatant targets
resulting in 15 deaths or more) increased dramatically after the
September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. However, most
of these attacks have been concentrated in a handful of locations
in the Middle East and South Asia and have taken place mainly in
Iraq and Pakistan in recent years. There was a dramatic surge in
HCTB attacks in Iraq in the first eight months of 2007 (claiming
more than 3,761 lives and 87% of the global total during that period).
Attacks in Iraq dropped sharply beginning in early September 2007,
falling from 2677 deaths in the previous six-month period to average
about 700 deaths in subsequent periods; after falling to 319 in the period ending in March 2013, they have risen sharply once again in the period ending in September 2013). Attacks increased in Pakistan in 2007 and have spread to other Muslim countries over the past two years. Click on the chart
to view the list of HCTB attacks.
||Global Trends in Governance, 1946-2012
Cascades of democratization have accompanied the end of the Cold War,
first, in Latin America and followed closely by a, second, cascade
in many former-Socialist Bloc countries and former-Soviet republics
with a, third, cascade affecting the heavily aid-dependent and "non-aligned"
countries of Africa which could no longer play off the "superpower
rivalry" that characterized the Cold War. A fourth cascade appears
to have swept through the Islamic countries of North Africa and the
Middle East; however, this cascade of democratization seems to have
triggered stiff resistance. The shift away from autocratic to "anocratic"
regimes since the early 1980s has been most dramatic in the poorer
countries of Africa. Autocracies persist in war-torn countries and
in oil-producing states; the first impediment to democracy (war) disporportionately
characterizes politics in Asia and both conditions (war and the "resource
curse") impede democratization in many Muslim countries."Muslim
democracies," such as those in Turkey, Malaysia, and Indonesia,
continue to develop and consolidate in the calmer areas around the
periphery of the Muslim region.
Click on the chart to go the the Polity IV Project page.
||Global System - Income Distribution,
1992 and 2005
Prospects for the peaceful development of the global system in the
Globalization Era can be summarized by plotting the distribution of
income among the 162 (larger) states that comprise the system. A "Lorenz
curve" plots unit shares of total income (GDP) against shares
of total population in a system; the diagonal line plots "perfect
equality." Well-performing societal-systems, such as the United
States and Europe, are largely stable, democratic, affluent, and have
converged on income equality among constituent units; poorly-performing
systems are characterized by poverty, unequal income, violent conflict,
uneven development, and poor qualities of governance. Global System
income shows vast income inequalities among constituent states with
only modest improvement since the end of the Cold War. The global
curve indicates the absense of a "middle class" that could
mediate between the powerful and the powerless.
Click the chart to go to the Comparative
||Fragile States Index and Matrix 2012
Effective conflict management results from a congruence between state
capacity and the systemic risk factors that "fuel" conflict
dynamics and the escalation to violence. The State
Fragility Matrix 2012 is now available; it includes a detailed
assessment of "state fragility" for each of the world's
167 major countries (with populations greater than 500,000) that comprises
a 2x4 matrix of indicators (effectiveness and legitimacy indicators
for security, governance, economic, and social dimensions of state
performance). In the 2009 report we chronicle a 20% overall
improvement in state fragility in the global system since 1995. The
full, annual times-series of State Fragility scores is available on
Click on the State Fragility map to compare
fragility maps for 1995, 2002, and 2011 and summaries of net changes
in fragility since 1995.
It is easier to lead men to combat, stirring up their passion, than
to restrain them and direct them toward the patient labors of peace.
-- Andre Gide (1869-1951)
CSP Conflict Trends and War List, 1946-2012
The Center for Systemic Peace's societal-systemic analyses are supported
by the Center's extensive data collection activities, including the Armed
Conflict and Intervention (ACI) and Polity IV projects. Situations around
the world are monitored on a daily basis and the information gathered
is used to reevaluate current conditions and indentify changes in those
conditions. Our data collections and trends graphs are updated annually;
our trends graphs are being updated through 2012 and our "war list"
has been updated through early-2013. To review these valuable systemic
performance evaluations, click on War List or
Conflict Trends on the CSP Menu Bar, above.
The Center also provides information, and consultation, with the US Government's
Political Instability Task Force (PITF); click on State
Failure on the CSP Menu Bar to access the public resource Web site
of the PITF.
Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2012
The Center for Systemic Peace, in conjunction with the Center for Global
Policy, manages and directs the well-known and highly respected Polity
Project and Data Series. Polity is a registered trademark. The Polity
IV Project data resources support many of our systemic analyses and are
being made publicly available through the CSP Web site. The Polity IV
products include the Polity IV annual time-series and country-regime datasets,
global and regional trends in governance, individual Country Reports for
each of the (currently) 167 countries covered by the data series, and
a new data series on coups and other non-conventional changes in executive
leadership (1946-2012). Click on Polity
IV on the CSP Menu Bar to gain access to the Polity IV Country Report
2010 series. The Polity IV version 2012 data resources are now part of
the INSCR Datasets Library (see below).
The Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) Program
at the Center for Systemic Peace manages, develops, and maintains several
electronic data resources that are used to support its societal-systems
analyses, including the CSP Major Episodes of Political Violence dataset
(annual time-series version of the CSP war list), PITF Problem Set (revolutionary
and ethnic wars, genocides and politicides, and adverse regime changes,
including annual magnitude scores for ongoing episodes), Polity IV annual
regime (annual time-series and polity-case formats) and coup-event datasets,
forcibly displaced populations (compiled from the US Committee for Refugees
and Immigrants' annual World Refugee Survey), and the India Sub-National
Problem Set (violent conflicts) and Crime in India annual data
on riots, murders, and dacoity. INSCR datasets are available in SPSS or
Excel formats (or both); each dataset has an acompanying codebook in PDF
format. To review the INSCR dataset codebooks or to download data files,
click on INSCR
Datasets in the CSP Menu Bar, above.
for Systemic Peace Virtual Library
The Center for Systemic Peace makes publicly available all its published
global systems analyses as electronic books and documents (in PDF format);
these can be viewed or downloaded from our virtual library. The CSP library
includes the Global Report, Peace and Conflict, and CSP
Occasional Papers series, as well as our special reports on Conflict Trends
in Africa, Global Terrorism, and Gender and Conflict. The library also
includes the full-length edition of the seminal book on systemic peace,
Third World War. To review these files, or to download copies,
click on Virtual Library in the CSP Menu Bar,
Needs Your Help! Please Consider A Contribution
to Help Support Our Center
The Center for Systemic Peace's main mission is to provide the highest
quality information and systemic analyses to help inform the widest possible
audience; all of our work is made available to the public without charge.
Over the years, our product base has expanded enormously and, so, to ensure
the continuing operations of the Center, to maintain the highest quality,
and to support the free distribtution of our information resources, please
consider making a donation to the Center. Click the E-Mail
link, below, or contact the Center by mail or phone (below) for more information
on how you or your organization can help!
To contact CSP, click the email link below.
Director: Dr. Monty G. Marshall
Monty G. Marshall left the university system on July 31, 2010, and
is now president of a private research enterprise: Societal-Systems
Research Inc; this private initiative will continue to produce the
high-quality information resources that form the foundation of the
Center for Systemic Peace. His most recent academic position was Research
Professor in the School of Public Policy and Director of Research
for the Center for Global Policy
at George Mason University, 2005-2010. Since 1998, he has been the
director of the Polity IV project, which provides annual assessments
of autocracy, democracy, and regime transitions, and the Armed Conflict
and Intervention (ACI) project, which monitors all forms of armed
conflict and international influence structures. Also, since 1998,
Dr. Marshall has served as a senior consultant with the US Government's
State Failure Task Force (now known as the Political Instability Task
Force, PITF). He has consulted frequently with the UN, USAID, DfID,
and the National Geographic Society, and many other national agencies
and international organizations. Before taking the position at GMU,
he was a Senior Research Associate at the Center for International
Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM), University of Maryland,
where he directed the Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research
(INSCR) program, 1998-2005 (now at CSP); he is a co-founder and was principle author,
editor, and researcher for CIDCM's Peace and Conflict series.
He also co-authored the original Minorities at Risk data series (with
Ted Gurr) and was a Co-Director of that project.
Current research focuses on systems analyses of societal conflict
processes and the impact of global influence networks on local conflict
dynamics. His theory and evidence detailing the problem of political
violence within the context of societal and systemic development processes
and the diffusion of insecurity in protracted conflict regions are
reported in Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics
(Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999). Other recent publications
include the Global Report biennial series (2007-2011) and Peace and Conflict biennial series (2001-2005); "A Global
Model for Forecasting Political Instability" with other members
of the PITF in the American Journal of Political Science (2010);
"Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing
Sources of Systemic Risk" for the Center for Preventive Action,
Council on Foreign Relations (2008); and "Measuring the Societal
Effects of War" in Hampson and Malone, eds., From Reaction
to Conflict Prevention: Opportunities for the UN System (Boulder,
CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002). He holds degrees in political science from
the University of Colorado, University of Maryland, and The University
of Iowa and held a prestigious University of Iowa Fellowship from
1990 to 1993. He began his professional career teaching courses full-time
at the University of South Florida, 1994-1997.
Research Associate: Dr. Benjamin R. Cole
Ben Cole formally joined CSP in 2011 but has worked on PITF-funded
and CSP-managed projects since beginning doctoral studies in 2006; he is currently Assistant Professor of Public Policy at Simmons College.
He holds an MA in Political Science (2006) from the University of
New Hampshire and a PhD in Public Policy (2011) from George Mason
University. He taught comparative politics and international relations
full-time at the University of New Hampshire from 2008 to 2011 and
was selected as a UNH Dialogue Fellow for 2011-12. In September 2011,
Dr. Cole began his appointment as Research Associate and Visiting
Assistant Professor of Public Policy at the Rockefeller Center, Dartmouth
College. His research interests include the theoretical and empirical
study of democratic transition dynamics, state fragility and political
instability, factionalism, and the social science applications of
complexity theory. His doctoral research advocated a new conceptualization
of democracy based on contributions from complexity theory and developed
a unique cross-national measure of governance characteristics on that
basis. He is co-author of CSP's Global Report series since
2008; in addition, he has published papers on US foreign policy, comparative
manned space policy, and comparative healthcare policy.
Research Associate: Donna Ramsey Marshall
Donna Ramsey Marshall joined CSP in 1998. She is currently the Director of Administration at the United States Institute of Peace
in Washington DC. She has research interests in international humanitarian
law, non-violent social movements, and gender and conflict. Publications
include Women in War and Peace: Grassroots Peace Building (USIP
Press, 2000) and New Bridges to Peace: Enhancing National and International
Security by Expanding Policy Dialogues Among Women (Women in International
Security, 2001). She is a 1997-98 Rotary Ambassadorial Scholar and
holds a Master of Arts with Distinction in International Conflict
Analysis from the University of Kent at Canterbury (England).
Research Associate/Videographer: Eliot Elzinga
Eliot Elzinga joined CSP in 2011. He holds a Master of International Public Affairs from the LaFollette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin. His graduate studies focused on international development and security policy with regional expertise in Africa and the Middle East. In 2005, he served as part of the US Department of State Student Internship Program with the Political and Public Affairs sections at the American Embassy in Lilongwe, Malawi. Eliot has taken the lead in monitoring global armed conflicts and has been working on several CSP global data initiatives that are nearing completion, including the Electoral and Procedural Boycotts (EPB) and Executive and Party Structure (EPS) databases. Since June 2013, he has worked primarily as videographer in the production of a CSP serial lecture series and "conceptual visualization" scheme detailing the theoretical foundations of CSP's "complex societal system" analytic framework, titled "Managing Complexity in Modern Societal-Systems."
Research Assistant: Gabrielle Elzinga-Marshall
Gabrielle Elzinga-Marshall joined CSP in 2011. She graduated with a BA in Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and is now doing her graduate studies in Public Affairs at the La Follette School at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. She has been conducting research for CSP on two major data initiatives: Electoral and Procedural Boycotts (EPB), 1946-present, and Executive and Party Structure (EPS), 1946-present; these new data collection projects will be integrated with the forthcoming Polity V data series that will upgrade and replace the current Polity IV data series in 2014. She has also been working on redesigning the CSP Web site and we expect to improve our look and Web presence in late 2013.
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This web page was last updated on October 19, 2013 © CSP