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The Center
for Systemic Peace (CSP) was founded
in 1997. It is engaged in innovative research on the problem of political
violence within the structural context of the dynamic global system, that
is, global systems analysis. The Center supports scientific research and
quantitative analysis in many issue areas related to the fundamental problems
of violence in both human relations and societal development. The focus
of CSP research is on the possibilities of complex systemic management
of all manner of societal and systemic conflicts. The Center regularly
monitors and reports on general trends in societal-system performance,
at the global, regional, and state levels of analysis and in the key systemic
dimensions of conflict, governance, and (human and physical) development.
The Center is now affiliated with the Center
for Global Policy at George Mason University.
One day we must come to see that peace is not merely a distant goal
that we seek, but that it is a means by which we arrive at that goal.
We must pursue peaceful ends through peaceful means. -- Martin Luther
King, Jr. (1929-1968)
CSP
Publications:
Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States & Global Report 2008
The Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations has
published "Fragility,
Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk"
by CSP Director Monty G. Marshall (October 2008). The 2008 edition in the
Global Report series was published in the Cambridge University
Press journal Foreign
Policy Bulletin (v18.1); the 2009 edition will be published jointly
by CSP and the Center for Global Policy
with generous support provided by the One
Earth Future Foundation. The Center for Systemic Peace no longer provides
information and analytic support for the Peace and Conflict series.
All CSP publications are also available in the CSP Virtual
Library. CSP also provides "Conflict and Terror" data for
the National Geographic Society atlases, including the Atlas of
the World, Visual Atlas, Family Reference Atlas, Student Atlas, and Atlas
of the Middle East.
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Global Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2008
The Global System continues on its path of recovery that began with
the ending of the Cold war in late 1991, despite the tragedy that
has befallen Iraq since 2003 and the shocks associated with much-touted
"war on global terrorism." The total magnitude of armed
conflict in the global system has declined by over 60% and the number
of states experiencing wars has been cut in half (less than 15%) since
the peak year (1992). There is some cause for concern, however, as
there have been a number of new low-magnitude wars breaking out in
the past few years and dramatic escalations in ongoing civil wars
in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. The ferocious determination of the Sri
Lankan government in eliminating the last vestiges of the ethnic-Tamil
LTTE insurgency raises concerns that the search for political settlements
may give way to the apparent expediency of military solutions in the
world's more intractable conflicts. |
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High Casualty Terrorist Bombings, 3/11/94-3/10/09
"Global Terrorism" is often identified as a key security
threat. Indeed, the numbers of people killed in "high casualty
terrorist bombings" (HCTB--bomb attacks on non-combatant targets
resulting in 15 deaths or more) increased dramatically after the September
11, 2001, attack on the United States. However, most of these attacks
have been concentrated in a handful of locations in the Middle East
and South Asia and have taken place mainly in Iraq in recent years.
There was a dramatic surge in HCTB attacks in Iraq in the first eight
months of 2007 (claiming more than 3,761 lives and 87% of the global
total during that period). Attacks in Iraq have dropped sharply since
early September 2007, claiming about 525 lives in the most recent
period. High casuality terrorist attacks appear to have given way
to lower casuality attacks focused primarily on political targets. |
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Global Trends in Governance, 1946-2008
Perhaps ironically, the "third wave of democratization"
that accompanied the end of the Cold War is mainly accounted by transformations
to democracy in many former-Socialist Bloc countries and former-Soviet
republics. The shift away from autocratic to "anocratic"
regimes since the early 1980s has been most dramatic in the poorer
countries of Africa. Autocracies persist in war-torn countries and
in oil-producing states; the first impediment to democracy (war) disporportionately
characterizes politics in Asia and both conditions impede democratization
in many Muslim countries; however, "Muslim democracies"
such as Turkey, Malaysia, and Indonesia continue to develop in the
calmer areas around the periphery of the Muslim region |
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Global System - Income Distribution,
1992 and 2005
Prospects for the peaceful development of the global system in the
Globalization Era can be summarized by plotting the distribution of
income among the 162 (larger) states that comprise the system. A "Lorenz
curve" plots unit shares of total income (GDP) against shares
of total population in a system; the diagonal line plots "perfect
equality." Well-performing societal-systems, such as the United
States and Europe, are largely peaceful, democratic, affluent, and
have converged on income equality among constituent units; poorly-performing
systems are characterized by unequal income, high levels of violent
conflict, uneven and under-development, and poor qualities of governance.
Global System income distribution shows vast income inequalities with
only modest improvement since the end of the Cold War. The global
curve indicates the absense of a "middle class" that could
mediate between the powerful and the powerless. |
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Fragile States Index and Matrix 2008
Effective conflict management results from a congruence between state
capacity and the systemic risk factors that "fuel" conflict
dynamics and the escalation to violence. Global Report 2009
is now being prepared; it includes a detailed assessment of "state
fragility" for each of the world's 162 major countries (with
populations greater than 500,000) that comprises a 2x4 matrix of indicators
(effectiveness and legitimacy indicators for security, governance,
economic, and social dimensions of state performance). Click
on the map on the left to view the full listing of 2008 State Fragility
scores for 162 countries. In Global Report 2009
we chronicle a 19% overall improvement in state fragility in the global
system since 1995. Compare global fragility maps for 1995, 2001, and
2008 and summaries of net changes in fragility since 1995 on the CSP
Conflict Trends page or go there directly
by clicking here. |
It is easier to lead men to combat, stirring up their passion, than
to restrain them and direct them toward the patient labors of peace.
-- Andre Gide (1869-1951)
CSP Conflict Trends and War List
The Center for Systemic Peace's societal-systemic analyses are supported
by the Center's extensive data collection activities, including the Armed
Conflict and Intervention (ACI) and Polity IV projects. Situations around
the world are monitored on a daily basis and the information gathered
is used to reevaluate current conditions and indentify changes in those
conditions. Our data collections and trends graphs are updated annually;
most of our trends graphs are now updated through 2007 and our "war
list" has been updated through early-2009. To review these valuable
systemic performance evaluations, click on War List
or Conflict Trends on the CSP Menu Bar, above.
The Center also provides information, and consultation, with the US Government's
Political Instability Task Force (PITF); click on State
Failure on the CSP Menu Bar to access the public resource Web site
of the PITF.
PolityIV:
Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2007
The Center for Systemic Peace, in conjunction with the Center for Global
Policy, manages and directs the well-known and highly respected Polity
Project and Data Series. Polity is a registered trademark. The Polity
IV Project data resources support many of our systemic analyses and are
being made publicly available through the CSP Web site. The Polity IV
products include the Polity IV annual time-series and country-regime datasets,
global and regional trends in governance, individual Country Reports for
each of the (currently) 162 countries covered by the data series, and
a new data series on coups and other non-conventional changes in executive
leadership (1960-2007). Click on Polity
IV on the CSP Menu Bar to gain access to the Polity IV Country Report
2007 series. The Polity IV version 2007 data resources are now part of
the INSCR Datasets Library (see below).
INSCR
Datasets
The Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) Program
at the Center for Systemic Peace manages, develops, and maintains several
electronic data resources that are used to support its societal-systems
analyses, including the CSP Major Episodes of Political Violence dataset
(annual time-series version of the CSP war list), PITF Problem Set (revolutionary
and ethnic wars, genocides and politicides, and adverse regime changes,
including annual magnitude scores for ongoing episodes), Polity IV annual
regime (annual time-series and polity-case formats) and coup-event datasets,
forcibly displaced populations (compiled from the US Committee for Refugees
and Immigrants' annual World Refugee Survey), and the India Sub-National
Problem Set (violent conflicts) and Crime in India annual data
on riots, murders, and dacoity. INSCR datasets are available in SPSS or
Excel formats (or both); each dataset has an acompanying codebook in PDF
format. To review the INSCR dataset codebooks or to download data files,
click on INSCR
Datasets in the CSP Menu Bar, above.
Center
for Systemic Peace Virtual Library
In celebration of our tenth anniversary, the Center for Systemic Peace
is making publicly available all its published global systems analyses
as electronic books and documents (in PDF format); these can be viewed
or downloaded from our virtual library. The CSP library includes the Global
Report, Peace and Conflict, and CSP Occasional Papers series, as well
as our special reports on Conflict Trends in Africa, Global Terrorism,
and Gender and Conflict. The library also includes the full-length edition
of the book, Third World War. To review these files, or to download
copies, click on Virtual Library in the CSP Menu
Bar, above.
CSP
Needs Your Help! Please Consider A Contribution
to Help Support Our Center
The Center for Systemic Peace's main mission is to provide the highest
quality information and systemic analyses to help inform the widest possible
audience; all of our work is made available to the public without charge.
Over the years, our product base has expanded enormously and, so, to ensure
the continuing operations of the Center, to maintain the highest quality,
and to support the free distribtution of our information resources, please
consider making a donation to the Center. Click the E-Mail
link, below, or contact the Center by mail or phone (below) for more information
on how you or your organization can help!
To contact CSP, click the email link below.

mgmarshall@systemicpeace.org
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CSP
Director: Dr. Monty G. Marshall
Monty G. Marshall is Research Professor in the School of Public Policy
and Director of Research for the Center
for Global Policy at George Mason University. He is also director
of the Polity IV project, which provides annual assessments of autocracy,
democracy, and regime transitions, and the Armed Conflict and Intervention
(ACI) project, which monitors all forms of armed conflict and international
influence structures. Since 1998, Dr. Marshall has served as a senior
consultant with the US Government's State Failure Task Force (now
known as the Political Instability Task Force). He has consulted frequently
with the UN, USAID, DIfD, and the National Geographic Society, and
many other national agencies and international organizations. Before
moving to GMU, he was a Senior Research Associate at the Center for
International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM), University
of Maryland, where he directed the Integrated Network for Societal
Conflict Research (INSCR) program from 1998-2005; he is a co-founder
and was principle author and researcher for CIDCM's Peace and Conflict
series. He also co-authored the original Minorities at Risk data series
(with Ted Gurr) and was a Co-Director of that project. Current research
focuses on systems analyses of societal conflict processes and the
impact of global influence networks on local conflict dynamics. His
theory and evidence detailing the problem of political violence within
the context of societal and systemic development processes and the
diffusion of insecurity in protracted conflict regions are reported
in Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics
(Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999). Other recent publications
include "Global Trends in Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility
2008" (Foreign Policy Bulletin v18.1:3-21); "Fragility,
Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic
Risk" for the Center for Preventive Action, Council on Foreign
Relations (2008); and "Measuring the Societal Effects of War"
in Hampson and Malone, eds., From Reaction to Conflict Prevention:
Opportunities for the UN System (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002).
He holds degrees in political science from the University of Colorado,
University of Maryland, and The University of Iowa and held a prestigious
University of Iowa Fellowship from 1990 to 1993. |
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CSP
Research Associate: Donna Ramsey Marshall
Donna Ramsey Marshall joined CSP in 1998. She has worked with the
Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the
University of Maryland and the United States Institute of Peace, where
she is currently working on the development of its proposed Peace
Education Center. She has research interests in international humanitarian
law, non-violent social movements, and gender and conflict. Recent
publications include Women in War and Peace: Grassroots Peace Building
(USIP Press, 2000) and New Bridges to Peace: Enhancing National
and International Security by Expanding Policy Dialogues Among Women
(Women in International Security, 2001). She is a 1997-98 Rotary Ambassadorial
Scholar and holds a Master of Arts with Distinction in International
Conflict Analysis from the University of Kent at Canterbury (England). |
Center for Systemic Peace
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USA
(202) 236-9298
This web page was last updated on July 1, 2009 © CSP
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