The Center for Systemic Peace (CSP) was founded in 1997. It is engaged in innovative research on the problem of political violence within the structural context of the dynamic global system, that is, global systems analysis. The Center supports scientific research and quantitative analysis in many issue areas related to the fundamental problems of violence in both human relations and societal development. The focus of CSP research is on the possibilities of complex systemic management of all manner of societal and systemic conflicts. The Center regularly monitors and reports on general trends in societal-system performance, at the global, regional, and state levels of analysis and in the key systemic dimensions of conflict, governance, and (human and physical) development. The Center is now affiliated with the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University.

One day we must come to see that peace is not merely a distant goal that we seek, but that it is a means by which we arrive at that goal. We must pursue peaceful ends through peaceful means. -- Martin Luther King, Jr. (1929-1968)

	Global Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2008 The Global System continues on its path of recovery that began with the ending of the Cold war in late 1991, despite the tragedy that has befallen Iraq since 2003 and the shocks associated with much-touted "war on global terrorism." The total magnitude of armed conflict in the global system has declined by over 60% and the number of states experiencing wars has been cut in half (less than 15%) since the peak year (1992). There is some cause for concern, however, as there have been a number of new low-magnitude wars breaking out in the past few years and dramatic escalations in ongoing civil wars in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. The ferocious determination of the Sri Lankan government in eliminating the last vestiges of the ethnic-Tamil LTTE insurgency raises concerns that the search for political settlements may give way to the apparent expediency of military solutions in the world's more intractable conflicts.
	High Casualty Terrorist Bombings, 3/11/94-3/10/09 "Global Terrorism" is often identified as a key security threat. Indeed, the numbers of people killed in "high casualty terrorist bombings" (HCTB--bomb attacks on non-combatant targets resulting in 15 deaths or more) increased dramatically after the September 11, 2001, attack on the United States. However, most of these attacks have been concentrated in a handful of locations in the Middle East and South Asia and have taken place mainly in Iraq in recent years. There was a dramatic surge in HCTB attacks in Iraq in the first eight months of 2007 (claiming more than 3,761 lives and 87% of the global total during that period). Attacks in Iraq have dropped sharply since early September 2007, claiming about 525 lives in the most recent period. High casuality terrorist attacks appear to have given way to lower casuality attacks focused primarily on political targets.
	Global Trends in Governance, 1946-2008 Perhaps ironically, the "third wave of democratization" that accompanied the end of the Cold War is mainly accounted by transformations to democracy in many former-Socialist Bloc countries and former-Soviet republics. The shift away from autocratic to "anocratic" regimes since the early 1980s has been most dramatic in the poorer countries of Africa. Autocracies persist in war-torn countries and in oil-producing states; the first impediment to democracy (war) disporportionately characterizes politics in Asia and both conditions impede democratization in many Muslim countries; however, "Muslim democracies" such as Turkey, Malaysia, and Indonesia continue to develop in the calmer areas around the periphery of the Muslim region
	Global System - Income Distribution, 1992 and 2005 Prospects for the peaceful development of the global system in the Globalization Era can be summarized by plotting the distribution of income among the 162 (larger) states that comprise the system. A "Lorenz curve" plots unit shares of total income (GDP) against shares of total population in a system; the diagonal line plots "perfect equality." Well-performing societal-systems, such as the United States and Europe, are largely peaceful, democratic, affluent, and have converged on income equality among constituent units; poorly-performing systems are characterized by unequal income, high levels of violent conflict, uneven and under-development, and poor qualities of governance. Global System income distribution shows vast income inequalities with only modest improvement since the end of the Cold War. The global curve indicates the absense of a "middle class" that could mediate between the powerful and the powerless.
	Fragile States Index and Matrix 2008 Effective conflict management results from a congruence between state capacity and the systemic risk factors that "fuel" conflict dynamics and the escalation to violence. Global Report 2009 is now being prepared; it includes a detailed assessment of "state fragility" for each of the world's 162 major countries (with populations greater than 500,000) that comprises a 2x4 matrix of indicators (effectiveness and legitimacy indicators for security, governance, economic, and social dimensions of state performance). Click on the map on the left to view the full listing of 2008 State Fragility scores for 162 countries. In Global Report 2009 we chronicle a 19% overall improvement in state fragility in the global system since 1995. Compare global fragility maps for 1995, 2001, and 2008 and summaries of net changes in fragility since 1995 on the CSP Conflict Trends page or go there directly by clicking here.

It is easier to lead men to combat, stirring up their passion, than to restrain them and direct them toward the patient labors of peace. -- Andre Gide (1869-1951)

CSP Conflict Trends and War List
The Center for Systemic Peace's societal-systemic analyses are supported by the Center's extensive data collection activities, including the Armed Conflict and Intervention (ACI) and Polity IV projects. Situations around the world are monitored on a daily basis and the information gathered is used to reevaluate current conditions and indentify changes in those conditions. Our data collections and trends graphs are updated annually; most of our trends graphs are now updated through 2007 and our "war list" has been updated through early-2009. To review these valuable systemic performance evaluations, click on War List or Conflict Trends on the CSP Menu Bar, above. The Center also provides information, and consultation, with the US Government's Political Instability Task Force (PITF); click on State Failure on the CSP Menu Bar to access the public resource Web site of the PITF.

Polity™IV: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2007
The Center for Systemic Peace, in conjunction with the Center for Global Policy, manages and directs the well-known and highly respected Polity Project and Data Series. Polity is a registered trademark. The Polity IV Project data resources support many of our systemic analyses and are being made publicly available through the CSP Web site. The Polity IV products include the Polity IV annual time-series and country-regime datasets, global and regional trends in governance, individual Country Reports for each of the (currently) 162 countries covered by the data series, and a new data series on coups and other non-conventional changes in executive leadership (1960-2007). Click on Polity IV on the CSP Menu Bar to gain access to the Polity IV Country Report 2007 series. The Polity IV version 2007 data resources are now part of the INSCR Datasets Library (see below).

INSCR Datasets
The Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) Program at the Center for Systemic Peace manages, develops, and maintains several electronic data resources that are used to support its societal-systems analyses, including the CSP Major Episodes of Political Violence dataset (annual time-series version of the CSP war list), PITF Problem Set (revolutionary and ethnic wars, genocides and politicides, and adverse regime changes, including annual magnitude scores for ongoing episodes), Polity IV annual regime (annual time-series and polity-case formats) and coup-event datasets, forcibly displaced populations (compiled from the US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants' annual World Refugee Survey), and the India Sub-National Problem Set (violent conflicts) and Crime in India annual data on riots, murders, and dacoity. INSCR datasets are available in SPSS or Excel formats (or both); each dataset has an acompanying codebook in PDF format. To review the INSCR dataset codebooks or to download data files, click on INSCR Datasets in the CSP Menu Bar, above.

Center for Systemic Peace Virtual Library
In celebration of our tenth anniversary, the Center for Systemic Peace is making publicly available all its published global systems analyses as electronic books and documents (in PDF format); these can be viewed or downloaded from our virtual library. The CSP library includes the Global Report, Peace and Conflict, and CSP Occasional Papers series, as well as our special reports on Conflict Trends in Africa, Global Terrorism, and Gender and Conflict. The library also includes the full-length edition of the book, Third World War. To review these files, or to download copies, click on Virtual Library in the CSP Menu Bar, above.

CSP Needs Your Help! Please Consider A Contribution to Help Support Our Center
The Center for Systemic Peace's main mission is to provide the highest quality information and systemic analyses to help inform the widest possible audience; all of our work is made available to the public without charge. Over the years, our product base has expanded enormously and, so, to ensure the continuing operations of the Center, to maintain the highest quality, and to support the free distribtution of our information resources, please consider making a donation to the Center. Click the E-Mail link, below, or contact the Center by mail or phone (below) for more information on how you or your organization can help!

To contact CSP, click the email link below.



mgmarshall@systemicpeace.org

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CSP Director: Dr. Monty G. Marshall Monty G. Marshall is Research Professor in the School of Public Policy and Director of Research for the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University. He is also director of the Polity IV project, which provides annual assessments of autocracy, democracy, and regime transitions, and the Armed Conflict and Intervention (ACI) project, which monitors all forms of armed conflict and international influence structures. Since 1998, Dr. Marshall has served as a senior consultant with the US Government's State Failure Task Force (now known as the Political Instability Task Force). He has consulted frequently with the UN, USAID, DIfD, and the National Geographic Society, and many other national agencies and international organizations. Before moving to GMU, he was a Senior Research Associate at the Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM), University of Maryland, where he directed the Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) program from 1998-2005; he is a co-founder and was principle author and researcher for CIDCM's Peace and Conflict series. He also co-authored the original Minorities at Risk data series (with Ted Gurr) and was a Co-Director of that project. Current research focuses on systems analyses of societal conflict processes and the impact of global influence networks on local conflict dynamics. His theory and evidence detailing the problem of political violence within the context of societal and systemic development processes and the diffusion of insecurity in protracted conflict regions are reported in Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics (Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999). Other recent publications include "Global Trends in Conflict, Governance, and State Fragility 2008" (Foreign Policy Bulletin v18.1:3-21); "Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk" for the Center for Preventive Action, Council on Foreign Relations (2008); and "Measuring the Societal Effects of War" in Hampson and Malone, eds., From Reaction to Conflict Prevention: Opportunities for the UN System (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002). He holds degrees in political science from the University of Colorado, University of Maryland, and The University of Iowa and held a prestigious University of Iowa Fellowship from 1990 to 1993.

CSP Research Associate: Donna Ramsey Marshall Donna Ramsey Marshall joined CSP in 1998. She has worked with the Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland and the United States Institute of Peace, where she is currently working on the development of its proposed Peace Education Center. She has research interests in international humanitarian law, non-violent social movements, and gender and conflict. Recent publications include Women in War and Peace: Grassroots Peace Building (USIP Press, 2000) and New Bridges to Peace: Enhancing National and International Security by Expanding Policy Dialogues Among Women (Women in International Security, 2001). She is a 1997-98 Rotary Ambassadorial Scholar and holds a Master of Arts with Distinction in International Conflict Analysis from the University of Kent at Canterbury (England).

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This web page was last updated on July 1, 2009 © CSP