The Center for Systemic Peace (CSP)
was founded in 1997. It is engaged in innovative research on the problem of political violence within the structural context of the dynamic global system, that is, global systems analysis. The Center supports scientific research and quantitative analysis in many issue areas related to the fundamental problems of violence in both human relations and societal development. The focus of CSP research is on the possibilities of complex systemic management of all manner of societal and systemic conflicts. The Center regularly monitors and reports on general trends in societal-system performance, at the global, regional, and state levels of analysis and in the key systemic dimensions of conflict, governance, and (human and physical) development in the sincere belief that the foundation and guarantor of good governance is an active, informed public.

One day we must come to see that peace is not merely a distant goal that we seek, but that it is a means by which we arrive at that goal. We must pursue peaceful ends through peaceful means. -- Martin Luther King, Jr. (1929-1968)

Click to view the Global Report series Forthcoming Publications:
The updated edition in the Global Report series has been delayed and will be published in May 2014 by the Center for Systemic Peace; it will include the full listing of 2013 State Fragility scores for 167 countries of the world. Back issues in the Global Report series are available in the CSP Virtual Library. To view the 2011 report click "Global Report" at the top of the button bar at the left margin. Click the following link to view a PDF copy of the 2012 State Fragility scores for 167 countries of the world (Luxembourg and South Sudan added). The Global Armed Conflict Trends graphs found on the "Conflict Trends" Page have been updated through 2013, as has the "War List."

One important reason for the delay in producing the new Global Report has been the production by CSP of a Video Book explaining the theoretical foundations for Societal-Systems Analytics, titled Managing Complexity in Modern Societal Systems. The first half of this "video book" is posted on the CSP YouTube site; it comprises 13 video segments, ranging from 10 to 50 minutes in length (4.5 hours total); the second half will be completed later in 2014. The Video Book uses conceptual visualization and animated modeling to explain how societal-systems are structured and how they work. We will also be upgrading our web site in late April 2014!
"A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability" was published by the members of the Political Instability Task Force in the January 2010 edition of the American Journal of Political Science. Click the link to view a PDF copy of the study. CSP Director Monty G. Marshall contributed an article,"The Measurement of Democracy and the Means of History, " for a Symposium on Measuring Democracy published in Society (Jan/Feb 2011, pp.24-35); he also wrote a Spotlight article, titled "The New Democratic Order: Complex Societal-Systems and the 'Invisible Hand'," for the Spring 2011 edition of the Harvard International Review.

All CSP publications are, or will be, posted in the CSP Virtual Library. CSP also provides governance, conflict, and terror data for the National Geographic Society atlases, including the Atlas of the World, Visual Atlas of the World, Family Reference Atlas, Collegiate Atlas of the World, Concise Atlas of the World, Student Atlas of the World, and Atlas of the Middle East.

Conflict Trends link Global Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2013
The Global System's dramatic recovery that began with the ending of the Cold war in late 1991 has slowed down in the early years of the 21st century; the most recent year has recorded an increase in societal armed conflict mainly concentrated in the Arab League states. The total magnitude of armed conflict in the global system has declined by over 60% and the number of states experiencing wars has been cut in half (less than 15%) since the peak year (1992). The number of new wars breaking out remains fairly constant at about 4 new wars per year. Particularly troubling are the cluster of wars in the Middle East, especially those in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen, and increasing pressure on Iran; the violent anarchy engulfing central Africa, and the increasing threat posed by organized crime and drug trafficking in Latin America and West Africa.
Click on the chart on the left to go the the CSP Conflict Trends page.
High Casualty Terrorist Bombings, 9/11/1989-3/10/2014
"Global Terrorism" is often identified as a global security threat. Indeed, the numbers of people killed in "high casualty terrorist bombings" (HCTB: bomb attacks on non-combatant targets resulting in 15 deaths or more) increased dramatically after the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. However, most of these attacks have been concentrated in a handful of locations in the Middle East and South Asia and have taken place mainly in Iraq and Pakistan in recent years. There was a dramatic surge in HCTB attacks in Iraq in the first eight months of 2007 (claiming more than 3,761 lives and 87% of the global total during that period). Attacks in Iraq dropped sharply beginning in early September 2007, falling from 2677 deaths in the previous six-month period to average about 700 deaths in subsequent periods; after falling to 319 in the period ending in March 2013, they have risen sharply once again in the two period endings in March 2014). Attacks increased in Pakistan in 2007 and have spread to other Muslim countries over the past two years. Click on the chart to view the list of HCTB attacks.
Polity IV Main Page link Global Trends in Governance, 1946-2012
Cascades of democratization have accompanied the end of the Cold War, first, in Latin America and followed closely by a, second, cascade in many former-Socialist Bloc countries and former-Soviet republics with a, third, cascade affecting the heavily aid-dependent and "non-aligned" countries of Africa which could no longer play off the "superpower rivalry" that characterized the Cold War. A fourth cascade appears to have swept through the Islamic countries of North Africa and the Middle East; however, this cascade of democratization seems to have triggered stiff resistance. The shift away from autocratic to "anocratic" regimes since the early 1980s has been most dramatic in the poorer countries of Africa. Autocracies persist in war-torn countries and in oil-producing states; the first impediment to democracy (war) disporportionately characterizes politics in Asia and both conditions (war and the "resource curse") impede democratization in many Muslim countries."Muslim democracies," such as those in Turkey, Malaysia, and Indonesia, continue to develop and consolidate in the calmer areas around the periphery of the Muslim region.
Click on the chart to go the the Polity IV Project page.
Regional Trends link Global System - Income Distribution, 1992 and 2005
Prospects for the peaceful development of the global system in the Globalization Era can be summarized by plotting the distribution of income among the 162 (larger) states that comprise the system. A "Lorenz curve" plots unit shares of total income (GDP) against shares of total population in a system; the diagonal line plots "perfect equality." Well-performing societal-systems, such as the United States and Europe, are largely stable, democratic, affluent, and have converged on income equality among constituent units; poorly-performing systems are characterized by poverty, unequal income, violent conflict, uneven development, and poor qualities of governance. Global System income shows vast income inequalities among constituent states with only modest improvement since the end of the Cold War. The global curve indicates the absense of a "middle class" that could mediate between the powerful and the powerless.
Click the chart to go to the Comparative Regionalism page.
State Fragility 1995-2012 Fragile States Index and Matrix 2012
Effective conflict management results from a congruence between state capacity and the systemic risk factors that "fuel" conflict dynamics and the escalation to violence. The State Fragility Matrix 2012 is now available; it includes a detailed assessment of "state fragility" for each of the world's 167 major countries (with populations greater than 500,000) that comprises a 2x4 matrix of indicators (effectiveness and legitimacy indicators for security, governance, economic, and social dimensions of state performance). In the 2009 report we chronicle a 20% overall improvement in state fragility in the global system since 1995. The full, annual times-series of State Fragility scores is available on the INSCR Data Page.
Click on the State Fragility map to compare fragility maps for 1995, 2002, and 2011 and summaries of net changes in fragility since 1995.

It is easier to lead men to combat, stirring up their passion, than to restrain them and direct them toward the patient labors of peace. -- Andre Gide (1869-1951)

CSP Conflict Trends and War List, 1946-2013
The Center for Systemic Peace's societal-systemic analyses are supported by the Center's extensive data collection activities, including the Armed Conflict and Intervention (ACI) and Polity IV projects. Situations around the world are monitored on a daily basis and the information gathered is used to reevaluate current conditions and indentify changes in those conditions. Our data collections and trends graphs are updated annually; our trends graphs are being updated through 2013 and our "war list" has been updated through early-2014. To review these valuable systemic performance evaluations, click on War List or Conflict Trends on the CSP Menu Bar, above. The Center also provides information, and consultation, with the US Government's Political Instability Task Force (PITF); click on State Failure on the CSP Menu Bar to access the public resource Web site of the PITF.

Polity™IV: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2012
The Center for Systemic Peace, in conjunction with the Center for Global Policy, manages and directs the well-known and highly respected Polity Project and Data Series. Polity is a registered trademark. The Polity IV Project data resources support many of our systemic analyses and are being made publicly available through the CSP Web site. The Polity IV products include the Polity IV annual time-series and country-regime datasets, global and regional trends in governance, individual Country Reports for each of the (currently) 167 countries covered by the data series, and a new data series on coups and other non-conventional changes in executive leadership (1946-2012). Click on Polity IV on the CSP Menu Bar to gain access to the Polity IV Country Report 2010 series. The Polity IV version 2012 data resources are now part of the INSCR Datasets Library (see below).

INSCR Datasets
The Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) Program at the Center for Systemic Peace manages, develops, and maintains several electronic data resources that are used to support its societal-systems analyses, including the CSP Major Episodes of Political Violence dataset (annual time-series version of the CSP war list), PITF Problem Set (revolutionary and ethnic wars, genocides and politicides, and adverse regime changes, including annual magnitude scores for ongoing episodes), Polity IV annual regime (annual time-series and polity-case formats) and coup-event datasets, forcibly displaced populations (compiled from the US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants' annual World Refugee Survey), and the India Sub-National Problem Set (violent conflicts) and Crime in India annual data on riots, murders, and dacoity. INSCR datasets are available in SPSS or Excel formats (or both); each dataset has an acompanying codebook in PDF format. To review the INSCR dataset codebooks or to download data files, click on INSCR Datasets in the CSP Menu Bar, above.

Center for Systemic Peace Virtual Library
The Center for Systemic Peace makes publicly available all its published global systems analyses as electronic books and documents (in PDF format); these can be viewed or downloaded from our virtual library. The CSP library includes the Global Report, Peace and Conflict, and CSP Occasional Papers series, as well as our special reports on Conflict Trends in Africa, Global Terrorism, and Gender and Conflict. The library also includes the full-length edition of the seminal book on systemic peace, Third World War. To review these files, or to download copies, click on Virtual Library in the CSP Menu Bar, above.

CSP Needs Your Help! Please Consider A Contribution to Help Support Our Center
The Center for Systemic Peace's main mission is to provide the highest quality information and systemic analyses to help inform the widest possible audience; all of our work is made available to the public without charge. Over the years, our product base has expanded enormously and, so, to ensure the continuing operations of the Center, to maintain the highest quality, and to support the free distribtution of our information resources, please consider making a donation to the Center. Click the E-Mail link, below, or contact the Center by mail or phone (below) for more information on how you or your organization can help!


To contact CSP, click the email link below.



mgmarshall@systemicpeace.org

CSP Director: Dr. Monty G. Marshall
Monty G. Marshall left the university system on July 31, 2010, and is now president of a private research enterprise: Societal-Systems Research Inc; this private initiative will continue to produce the high-quality information resources that form the foundation of the Center for Systemic Peace. His most recent academic position was Research Professor in the School of Public Policy and Director of Research for the Center for Global Policy at George Mason University, 2005-2010. Since 1998, he has been the director of the Polity IV project, which provides annual assessments of autocracy, democracy, and regime transitions, and the Armed Conflict and Intervention (ACI) project, which monitors all forms of armed conflict and international influence structures. Also, since 1998, Dr. Marshall has served as a senior consultant with the US Government's State Failure Task Force (now known as the Political Instability Task Force, PITF). He has consulted frequently with the UN, USAID, DfID, and the National Geographic Society, and many other national agencies and international organizations. Before taking the position at GMU, he was a Senior Research Associate at the Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM), University of Maryland, where he directed the Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) program, 1998-2005 (now at CSP); he is a co-founder and was principle author, editor, and researcher for CIDCM's Peace and Conflict series. He also co-authored the original Minorities at Risk data series (with Ted Gurr) and was a Co-Director of that project.

Current research focuses on systems analyses of societal conflict processes and the impact of global influence networks on local conflict dynamics. His theory and evidence detailing the problem of political violence within the context of societal and systemic development processes and the diffusion of insecurity in protracted conflict regions are reported in Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics (Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield, 1999). Other recent publications include the Global Report biennial series (2007-2011) and Peace and Conflict biennial series (2001-2005); "A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability" with other members of the PITF in the American Journal of Political Science (2010); "Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk" for the Center for Preventive Action, Council on Foreign Relations (2008); and "Measuring the Societal Effects of War" in Hampson and Malone, eds., From Reaction to Conflict Prevention: Opportunities for the UN System (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002). He holds degrees in political science from the University of Colorado, University of Maryland, and The University of Iowa and held a prestigious University of Iowa Fellowship from 1990 to 1993. He began his professional career teaching courses full-time at the University of South Florida, 1994-1997.

CSP Research Associate: Dr. Benjamin R. Cole
Ben Cole formally joined CSP in 2011 but has worked on PITF-funded and CSP-managed projects since beginning doctoral studies in 2006; he is currently Assistant Professor of Public Policy at Simmons College. He holds an MA in Political Science (2006) from the University of New Hampshire and a PhD in Public Policy (2011) from George Mason University. He taught comparative politics and international relations full-time at the University of New Hampshire from 2008 to 2011 and was selected as a UNH Dialogue Fellow for 2011-12. In September 2011, Dr. Cole began his appointment as Research Associate and Visiting Assistant Professor of Public Policy at the Rockefeller Center, Dartmouth College. His research interests include the theoretical and empirical study of democratic transition dynamics, state fragility and political instability, factionalism, and the social science applications of complexity theory. His doctoral research advocated a new conceptualization of democracy based on contributions from complexity theory and developed a unique cross-national measure of governance characteristics on that basis. He is co-author of CSP's Global Report series since 2008; in addition, he has published papers on US foreign policy, comparative manned space policy, and comparative healthcare policy.
CSP Research Associate: Donna Ramsey Marshall
Donna Ramsey Marshall joined CSP in 1998. She is currently the Director of Administration at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington DC. She has research interests in international humanitarian law, non-violent social movements, and gender and conflict. Publications include Women in War and Peace: Grassroots Peace Building (USIP Press, 2000) and New Bridges to Peace: Enhancing National and International Security by Expanding Policy Dialogues Among Women (Women in International Security, 2001). She is a 1997-98 Rotary Ambassadorial Scholar and holds a Master of Arts with Distinction in International Conflict Analysis from the University of Kent at Canterbury (England).
CSP Research Associate/Videographer: Eliot Elzinga
Eliot Elzinga joined CSP in 2011. He holds a Master of International Public Affairs from the LaFollette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin. His graduate studies focused on international development and security policy with regional expertise in Africa and the Middle East. In 2005, he served as part of the US Department of State Student Internship Program with the Political and Public Affairs sections at the American Embassy in Lilongwe, Malawi. Eliot has taken the lead in monitoring global armed conflicts and has been working on several CSP global data initiatives that are nearing completion, including the Electoral and Procedural Boycotts (EPB) and Executive and Party Structure (EPS) databases. Since June 2013, he has worked primarily as videographer in the production of a CSP serial lecture series and "conceptual visualization" scheme detailing the theoretical foundations of CSP's "complex societal system" analytic framework, titled "Managing Complexity in Modern Societal-Systems."
CSP Research Assistant: Gabrielle Elzinga-Marshall
Gabrielle Elzinga-Marshall joined CSP in 2011. She graduated with a BA in Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and is now doing her graduate studies in Public Affairs at the La Follette School at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. She has been conducting research for CSP on two major data initiatives: Electoral and Procedural Boycotts (EPB), 1946-present, and Executive and Party Structure (EPS), 1946-present; these new data collection projects will be integrated with the forthcoming Polity V data series that will upgrade and replace the current Polity IV data series in 2014. She has also been working on redesigning the CSP Web site and we expect to improve our look and Web presence in late 2013.


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This web page was last updated on April 11, 2014 © CSP
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